Background: Some of you had enjoyed reading my last post, so an update was in order.

TLDR: I had developed an averages-based statistical system ranking the strongest squads the Champions Trophy. Using it, I had predicted the results of all games including the knockouts and the winners. Here's the progress at the end of the league stage.

https://preview.redd.it/j91jnwpgwfme1.png?width=996&format=png&auto=webp&s=057d41cb4c8fae74a23befca0b5155c134f7a8ba

I got off to a bad start immediately. Pakistan's loss to NZ was significant enough to end its knockouts rate.

The three washouts didn't help. No surprise the plucky Afghans scored an upset. But should we even call these wins 'upsets' now, given how frequently they've impressed in ICC tournaments?

The rest was spot-on, though I had my heart in my mouth during Australia's chase against England. That was a toughie.

League Accuracy

12 games, with 3 washouts gives us 9 games. There, I got 7 right and 2 wrong. That's a 78% accuracy, and very close to what I had achieved in the 2023 World Cup.

Points Table Accuracy

Top 4: I managed to predict 3 of the top 4 positions, Pakistan being the lone mistake. That's 75% accuracy. Without the washouts, it could have been a bit different I suppose.

The Rest: Afghanistan was going to be England's sole win, but they lost that game as well, so that means I could only correctly predict Bangladesh's final position. That's 25% accuracy.

Overall: 4/8 right. 50% accuracy.

https://preview.redd.it/nv1yjqb9xfme1.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d5199c1a516aa1f9a21cc47198ebcca9a9cdaa4

The Knockouts:

https://preview.redd.it/7zboti43yfme1.png?width=988&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8af6d4678f9a7740f527c33acfcb10222e47ffd

I had predicted Ind v Aus, and Pak v SA in the semifinals. It's going to be NZ v SA now. It's never straightforward in the knockouts with these teams. They all have a long history of doing either amazing things or absolutely bizarre things. All squads have great depth and talent, and these stats will matter little on the day.

India will have a point to prove to Australia, and South Africa will have to demonstrate some reselience on the big days.

So all I'll say is good luck to each team. Hope you have a good week.